Tiptoeing Through Tensions: The EU’s Delicate Dance in China-Taiwan Relations

Introduction: A Tightrope Over the Taiwan Strait

In the heart of the Indo-Pacific, where global trade routes hum and geopolitical fault lines tremble, the European Union finds itself in a high-stakes balancing act. The Taiwan Strait, a narrow strip of water separating China and Taiwan, is more than a geographic divide—it’s a potential flashpoint with ripple effects that could reach Europe’s shores. The EU, bound by its “One China Policy,” officially recognizes the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the sole legal government of China, yet it’s increasingly cozying up to Taiwan, a vibrant democracy and semiconductor powerhouse. This intricate dance, driven by economic interests, shared values, and the looming shadow of U.S.-China rivalry, reveals hidden connections that could shape global stability. Let’s unpack how the EU navigates this complex terrain and why it matters.

The One China Policy: A Diplomatic Anchor

The EU’s approach to China-Taiwan relations is rooted in the “One China Policy,” a framework that acknowledges Beijing’s claim over Taiwan without endorsing it outright. Established in the 1970s when the EU’s predecessor, the European Economic Community, opened diplomatic ties with Beijing, this policy ensures the EU doesn’t formally recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state. It’s a pragmatic stance, allowing Europe to maintain robust economic relations with China—its second-largest trading partner—while avoiding direct confrontation. Yet, this policy doesn’t preclude engagement with Taiwan. As EU High Representative Josep Borrell stated in 2021, “The One China Policy does not prevent us from persisting and intensifying our cooperation with Taiwan.” This nuanced position sets the stage for a delicate balancing act.

Economic Ties: The Semiconductor Siren

Taiwan’s role as the world’s leading producer of semiconductors—supplying 60% of global chips and 90% of the most advanced ones—makes it an irresistible partner for the EU. From smartphones to cars to military hardware, these tiny chips are the lifeblood of modern economies. The EU, keen to secure resilient supply chains amid global disruptions, has deepened economic ties with Taiwan. Since the establishment of the European Economic and Trade Office (EETO) in Taipei in 2003, trade has surged, with bilateral trade growing 42% between 2020 and 2023. Taiwan is now the EU’s 13th largest trading partner globally and 5th in Asia, while the EU ranks as Taiwan’s 4th biggest market.

Key initiatives like the EU-Taiwan Trade and Investment Dialogue, upgraded to ministerial level in 2022, and the EU-Taiwan Industrial Cooperation Agreement of 2018 highlight this growing partnership. Discussions focus on semiconductors, AI, green energy, and supply chain resilience. The EU’s European Innovation Week in Taiwan and the European Business and Regulatory Cooperation program further cement ties, fostering collaboration in high-tech fields like 5G and robotics. Yet, every step toward Taiwan risks ruffling Beijing’s feathers, as China views any engagement as a challenge to its sovereignty claims.

Cultural and Political Synergies: A Democratic Bond

Beyond economics, the EU and Taiwan share a commitment to democracy, human rights, and the rule of law—values that resonate deeply in a world increasingly polarized by authoritarianism. Taiwan’s transformation into a pluralistic democracy has made it a “partner of choice” for Europe, as one scholar put it. Reciprocal visits by parliamentarians, such as a Taiwanese delegation to Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Brussels in 2021, and European lawmakers to Taipei, signal a warming of political ties. These exchanges, while not at the highest governmental levels, promote cultural, scientific, and people-to-people connections, from Europe Day festivals in Taiwan to joint environmental initiatives like the EU Beach Clean-up.

The European Parliament has been particularly vocal, passing over 10 resolutions supporting a Bilateral Investment Agreement (BIA) with Taiwan and advocating for its inclusion in international organizations like the World Health Organization. In October 2024, the Parliament rejected China’s claim that UN Resolution 2758 establishes sovereignty over Taiwan, a bold move that drew Beijing’s ire but underscored Europe’s commitment to Taiwan’s global participation.

Navigating PRC Pressure: The Geopolitical Tightrope

China’s assertive posture—marked by military drills, airspace violations, and economic coercion—complicates the EU’s strategy. Beijing has not hesitated to punish perceived slights, as seen in its sanctions on Lithuania after the opening of a “Taiwanese Representative Office” in Vilnius in 2021, which China viewed as a violation of the One China principle. The EU, wary of economic retaliation, treads carefully. A conflict in the Taiwan Strait would disrupt critical shipping lanes, impacting Europe’s trade-dependent economy, and could force the EU to impose sanctions on China, its second-largest trading partner.

Yet, the EU’s growing rivalry with China, fueled by Beijing’s support for Russia in Ukraine and its crackdown on Hong Kong, has shifted European sentiment. Central and Eastern European countries like the Czech Republic, Poland, and the Baltic states, wary of Russian and Chinese influence, have deepened ties with Taiwan, with some withdrawing from China’s “17+1” forum. The EU’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, launched in 2021, emphasizes diversifying partnerships in the region, with Taiwan as a key player, but stops short of endorsing a formal BIA to avoid antagonizing Beijing.

U.S.-China Rivalry: A Shadow Over Europe

The intensifying U.S.-China competition casts a long shadow over the EU’s Taiwan policy. The U.S., bound by the Taiwan Relations Act to support Taiwan’s defense, has escalated tensions with China, particularly after high-profile visits like Nancy Pelosi’s to Taipei in 2022. Some European states, influenced by U.S. military aid and shared concerns about China, align more closely with Washington’s stance. However, others, like France, advocate strategic autonomy, with President Macron warning against being drawn into a U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan. The EU’s challenge is to carve an independent path, balancing economic ties with China, support for Taiwan’s democracy, and alignment with the U.S. on global security.

Recent Developments: A Bold but Cautious Step Forward

In November 2024, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te called for an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the EU, emphasizing semiconductors, AI, and green energy. While the EU has not committed to a formal agreement, it continues to view Taiwan as a trusted partner. The EU’s rejection of China’s aggressive posturing, including its military activities around Taiwan, signals a firmer stance. Posts on X reflect this sentiment, with EU officials like Kaja Kallas emphasizing opposition to unilateral changes in the Taiwan Strait. Meanwhile, cultural and environmental cooperation, such as joint efforts in the Event Horizon Telescope project and climate initiatives, underscores the multifaceted nature of EU-Taiwan ties.

The Bigger Picture: Why It Matters

The EU’s engagement with Taiwan is not just about trade or diplomacy—it’s about shaping the future of global order. A conflict in the Taiwan Strait would disrupt supply chains, destabilize markets, and challenge the rules-based international system the EU champions. By strengthening ties with Taiwan while adhering to the One China Policy, the EU seeks to deter Chinese aggression without provoking outright conflict. This strategy reflects a broader shift in European foreign policy: from passive economic partner to proactive geopolitical player, navigating a world where hidden connections—between trade routes, democratic values, and great power rivalries—define the stakes.

Conclusion: A Dance Worth Watching

The EU’s approach to China-Taiwan tensions is a masterclass in strategic ambiguity, blending principle with pragmatism. By deepening ties with Taiwan in trade, technology, and culture, the EU bolsters a key democratic partner while carefully managing its relationship with China. As geopolitical currents shift, Europe’s role in the Indo-Pacific will only grow, making its Taiwan policy a critical lens for understanding global power dynamics. Whether this delicate dance holds firm or falters could determine the stability of not just the Taiwan Strait, but the world.

Thought-Provoking Questions:

1. Can the EU maintain its balancing act between China and Taiwan without triggering economic or diplomatic fallout?

2. How might the EU’s growing ties with Taiwan influence its relationship with other Indo-Pacific partners, like Japan or India?

3. In a potential Taiwan Strait conflict, would Europe’s economic interests outweigh its commitment to democratic values?